Analyst: Recent macroeconomic turmoil suggests a crypto market rally is likely

BestChange
2 min readNov 8, 2023

The main cryptocurrency is near the level of $35,000. Information about not the most positive employment indicators in the United States may contribute to the Fed taking a dovish position. Bitfinex analysts made similar conclusions.

A report from the US Department of Labor states that 150,000 new jobs were created in the previous month. This is almost 2 times less than the September values, when 297,000 places became available. Employment data suggests wage-driven inflation pressures will ease.

According to CME FedWatch, traders made it more likely that there would be no change in policy following the December meeting from 80% on the eve of the information release to 90.4%. Analysts pointed out that investors began to factor into the price of futures the possibility of a fall in the key rate by June next year (this figure today is more than 64%).

“We believe the Fed will stop raising rates due to tightening financial conditions. […] The Central Bank is well prepared for a long pause, giving the economy enough time to cope with the consequences of rising borrowing costs. Increased costs are already constraining investment momentum, which will require careful assessment of the latest data,” the report says.

Recent macroeconomic turmoil suggests the likelihood of a crypto market rally. Higher beta in digital assets, excluding Bitcoin, makes this signal stronger. This opinion was expressed by the head of the Matrixport research department, Markus Thielen.

He also noted that the main cryptocurrency could grow by an average of 23% during November and December this year.

“Bitcoin reached a new yearly high on June 22. This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the beginning of bull markets,” Thielen previously said.

The expert admitted that the BTC rate could grow by 123% in 12 months and by 310% in 1.5 years. In such a scenario, the price of Bitcoin could exceed $65,500 and $125,700, respectively.

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