Did you know that only one third of mined bitcoins participate in the turnover? The rest of bitcoins do not move among the wallets.
Of course, this can partially be blamed on hodlers, but it is highly likely that the access to inactive wallets was simply lost or the coins were forgotten by users.
The reason for that could be a loss or breaking of private key containers, impossibility to restore passwords from online-service or their closure, incompatibility of hierarchical generation of keys and lots of other options. If you have lost a password/key to your bitcoin wallet, you won’t be able to restore it, this is how the system works.
But what about the fact that every 10 minutes miners create more and more new bitcoins?
There is a limit after which the growth of the total amount of bitcoin in the network will stop, and this limit is 21 million of coins. Moreover, every 4 years the amount of new bitcoins is reduced two-fold.
For the 10 year and a half of bitcoin’s existence there has been generated around 17,7 million of bitcoins, which constitutes around 84 per cent of their total amount. If the access to two thirds of the coins has already been lost, then around 9 million of coins are left in the turnover, 3 million coins out of which do not yet exist.
Even if we do not take into account the possibility of losing an access to wallets in the future, it still turns out that we may face a shortage much larger, that it seems at first glance.
If bitcoin ceases to be a speculative asset and turns into one of the main reserve currencies of the world’s central banks, its total capitalization will be less correlated with the actual amount of available funds.
For instance, if now bitcoin would substitute the US dollar as the main reserve currency and its capitalization was at the level of the USA national debt, then the price of one bitcoin would be a little over $1 million. And if we take into account that the real volume of bitcoins available for turnover currently is about 6 million of coins, then bitcoin would have to have the price of $3,5 million to be compatible with US debt by capitalization.
And do you believe in the future of bitcoin? What price deems fair for the cryptocurrency number one?