Bloomberg Analyst: Signs that were making us bullish for btc spot are not there this time

Bloomberg reduced the chances of Ethereum-ETF registration in May of this year to 35%. This is due to the weak involvement of the Securities and Exchange Commission in negotiations with issuing companies.

“I get all the reasons they SHOULD approve it (and we personally believe they should) but all the signs/sources that were making us bullish 2.5mo out for btc spot are not there this time,” said Bloomberg expert Eric Balchunas.

However, he noted that 35% does not equal 0%. The product will receive SEC approval in the future.

“This Ethereum ETF cycle feels like the opposite of Bitcoin ETF approval odds at the moment. The more we see/hear (and don’t see/hear) the less optimistic I become. We’re ~73 days from the deadline and there really seems to be little to no movement,” said Balchunas’ colleague James Seyffarth.

Representatives of market maker GSR are still awaiting approval of the product, but they admitted that if there is no progress, their forecast may not come true next month.

“The one caveat is the following. In October 2023, we began to see movement in applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs for approval on January 10th. This is not yet the case for Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds. Perhaps the SEC and issuers are building on their experience and have shortened the process. But, if we don’t start to see progress within the next month, we will reduce our chances of approval,” they pointed out.

Also, journalist Eleanor Terrett doubted the credibility of her own forecast regarding the approval of an ETF based on ether this spring due to the disinterest of the SEC representatives. However, she did not rule out a “180-degree turn.”

Industry lawyer Jake Chervinski named several factors preventing the regulator from making a positive decision. According to the expert, the SEC does not see the value in technology and is guided by political gain, trying to please influential players in the political scene.

The department denies the correlation between spot/futures, the lawyer believes. SEC officials are also prepared to litigate even if there is a significant risk of losing. But Czerwinski hopes the product will receive approval in 2024.

“The good news is that we will receive more signals in the coming weeks about the direction of the SEC’s actions. […] If we don’t see signs [of work] and hear these reports as we approach the May 23 deadline, then this silence will speak volumes,” he concluded.

Do you agree with the expert?