Miners are selling out bitcoins, and the number of “hodlers” has grown to record levels
JPMorgan: Bitcoin is trading 25% below the real value
Although the investment bank JPMorgan does not work with cryptocurrency, the company’s specialists occasionally provide analytics on it.
According to the bank’s report of May 22, bitcoin today is trading “25% below what the intrinsic price would be after the halving.” The intrinsic value is calculated on the basis of the average cost of mining one coin.
Thus, BTC should be trading near the $11,500 mark, which is about $2,400 higher than the current figures. According to JPMorgan, “eventually bitcoin will catch up.”
Miners push the market
Miners turned into sellers, exerting pressure on the market, says analyst CryptoKea. Over the past seven days, they have sold 955 coins over what they mined.
“We reached Bitcoin miner capitulation territory,” the analyst concluded.
At the same time, the BTC hashrate fell to its lowest level in 2020. Even during Black Thursday, when the rate of the first cryptocurrency fell to $3,800, the computing power of the network was 94 TH/s. Now it has fallen to 90.30 TH/s.
Miners switch off outdated devices, but they are forced to sell bitcoins to pay for current expenses, CryptoKea notes.
The number of “hodlers” increases to the levels of 2016
The number of coins that have not been moving for more than a year has reached 60%, according to cryptanalyst Philipp Swift. This indicates a significant increase in the number of “hodlers” — investors who prefer to hold coins for a long time.
The last time this was observed in 2016, it was several months before the bull rally, Swift notes.
The analyst used the data of his own HODL Wave indicator, which estimates how long the coins did not move from one address to another. Currently, the indicator value is at levels close to the historical maximum.