Opinion: Is bull run over?

Famous trader Peter Brandt has issued a cautionary note, hinting that the bullish momentum driving Bitcoin’s recent surge may be teetering on the edge of collapse. In his latest piece titled “Is Bitcoin’s Peak on the Horizon? A Historical Perspective,” Brandt explores the notion of exponential decay within Bitcoin’s bull market cycles.

Brandt meticulously dissects four pivotal bull cycles in Bitcoin’s history, with the ongoing upswing representing the fifth. He unveils a troubling pattern: Each successive cycle demonstrates a diminishing exponential growth, with roughly 80% of the prior cycle’s momentum dissipating.

Drawing from this historical trend, Brandt projects a potential zenith of approximately $72,723 for the current cycle — a mark already achieved in recent trading. While he acknowledges the historical significance of halving events on Bitcoin’s price dynamics, Brandt underscores the stark reality of exponential decay, assigning a 25% probability that Bitcoin might have already peaked in this cycle.

Contemplating the aftermath of a market peak, Brandt speculates on potential price retracements, envisioning a descent to the mid $30,000 range per BTC or even revisiting the lows witnessed in 2021. Despite the bearish implications, he views such a correction as possibly bullish in the long haul, drawing parallels to analogous chart patterns observed in the gold market.

Concluding his analysis, Brandt acknowledges the compelling weight of the data, admitting, “Do I wish to embrace the analysis just presented? Not particularly, but the facts speak volumes for themselves.”

Source: u.today