Several analysts allow that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will delay the approval of ETH-ETF to 2025 or 2026

2 min readJan 30, 2024

The SEC will likely give its approval to the launch of an Ethereum-based spot ETF this summer. This point of view was voiced by the head of the legal department of Grayscale, Craig Salm.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said there is a 60% chance of ETH-ETF adoption in May. According to him, if this does not happen, the SEC will postpone consideration of applications until next year.

Seyffart said that as early as next week, the SEC could approve several applications to launch futures ETFs for ether. According to him, the regulator can speed up the approval of applications in order to catch the shutdown of the American government. In addition, he “heard” that applicants must update their documents by Friday afternoon so that the ETFs can launch as early as next week on Tuesday.

Previously, the US Securities and Exchange Commission postponed consideration of an application for an Ethereum-ETF from BlackRock until March of this year. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler noted that the approval of an instrument based on the main cryptocurrency was limited to only one digital asset.

In turn, the head of Morgan Creek Capital, Mark Yusko, estimated the probability of regulatory approval of ETH-ETF at less than 50%. He recalled the hostility of the US Securities and Exchange Commission towards the crypto industry as a whole.

Investment bank TD Cowen believes that the SEC will approve Ethereum-based ETFs at the end of next year or at the beginning of 2026. Analysts believe that we should not expect a positive decision from the regulator in 2024.

“To us, this is a political necessity as the agency needs to cement its role as a crypto regulator before Congress consider broader crypto legislation,” the report said.

However, analysts admitted that Gary Gensler “needs the support of progressives,” especially in the prospect of realizing his political ambitions. In this regard, “there is no reason to provoke an unnecessary fight.”

“We believe there is no upside for SEC Chair Gary Gensler to approve a spot Ethereum ETF given how upset progressive Democrats were over the agency’s approval of a spot bitcoin ETF earlier this month,” concluded TD Cowen specialists.