Tom Lee believes that a spot bitcoin ETF will create “an imbalance that will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of the first cryptocurrency”

2 min readSep 1, 2023


Bloomberg analyst Eric Balciunas believes there is a 75% chance of a spot bitcoin ETF launch this year. There is a 95% chance that it will be launched before the end of 2024.

Balciunas built his forecast on the basis of a recent court decision, which declared the SEC’s refusal to Grayscale’s statement about plans to launch a spot bitcoin ETF illegal.

“The judges unanimously rejected the SEC’s arguments and it will be difficult for the agency to justify further postponements and refusals, especially since the regulator has certain deadlines,” analysts James Seiffart and Elliot Stein supported fellow analyst.

Balciunas believes that the matter is also in the reputation of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which has been damaged due to recent events.

“All this was widely covered in the most popular media, so the reputational damage is great. We think that legal and PR losses on the part of the SEC will make a new denial of applications politically unjustified,” the expert said.

As Balciunas pointed out, the possibility of extending the SEC application deadline is quite high, but the final decision should be in favor of bitcoin-based spot ETFs.

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee announced his own forecast about the value of the main crypto coin. Previously, he stated that with the approval of the BTC spot ETF, the price of bitcoin would rise to $150,000, but now the expert has improved his own forecast to $185,000.

Lee believes that a spot ETF on the main crypto coin will simply absorb all the available global reserves of bitcoins and create “an imbalance that will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of the first cryptocurrency.” Demand will significantly exceed supply.

In addition, according to Tom Lee, the cost of the main digital coin can reach $185,000 and even overcome it due to this shortage.